Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/9 – Zone Coverage

Locks

Stephen F. Austin vs. Baylor over 149.5 (-110):

It’s weird to think about Baylor and their elite defensive players in the context of an over, but this game should be a track meet. Stephen F. Austin plays at the 10th fastest pace in college basketball, shoots at the 5th best percentage from the field, and is 7th in PPG.

But the Lumberjacks have also struggled to keep teams from scoring, and this Baylor offense is red hot. Bringing in transfer Adam Flagler has really opened things up for the Bears offensively, as they’re 4th in the country in 3-point percentage, averaging over 93 PPG, and even scored 82 on an excellent Illinois defense. I expect the experienced Baylor guards to break the SFA press for a lot of layups and for quick possessions to be the norm, so I’m rolling with the over.

California @ Pepperdine -4.5 (-110):

Pepperdine is really being disrespected here with this short line opening at 5.5 and then in the market with money coming in on Cal. The Waves are one of the grittiest teams in college basketball, with a deep rotation and a great guard-forward duo in Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards.

They return this season after being the key players that helped Pepperdine consistently take great teams to the brink last season. Their only losses this year are to top-25 teams San Diego St. after blowing a 14 point halftime lead, and UCLA in triple OT. That same UCLA team just railroaded Cal by 20 on Sunday. This is a rematch of a game last season that a much different Bears team won big, so I see revenge on the minds of Ross and Edwards. I have it as closer to a 10 point affair, so I’m laying less than 5 with confidence.

Degenerates

Abilene Christian +16 @ Texas Tech (-110):

I’ve been looking ahead to this game as a spot for the market to overreact to Tech’s blowouts of the small schools they’ve faced this season. Abilene is no joke this season at 5-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS, and they will be a sneaky tough test for the Red Raiders. 7-footer Kolton Kohl will cause problems for a relatively undersized Tech team on both ends of the floor.

Both of these teams want to play a defensive game, and that always favors an underdog of this many points. This line has been incredibly static despite Tech seeming like a big public play, so this looks like a sharp line freeze. I think this will be a very close game, so take the points with the Wildcats.

Tiny Nick is 45-23 (+19.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.